Gecko's Forex Journal

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2006-11-26T20:24:00.000+08:00

2005年入境游客抽样调查综合分析报告

国家旅游局政策法规司近日发布了2005年入境游客抽样调查综合分析报告，现摘编如下：

一，抽样人数的构成

团体游客占40.7%，另三游客占59.3%；过夜旅游者占94.6%，一日游游客占5.4%；男性游客占61.4%，女性游客占38.6%。
按旅游目的分：观光游览占34.2%；休闲度假占17.1%；探亲访友占7.9%；商务活动占26.8%；参加会议占5.0%；宗教朝拜占1.0%；文体科技占3.3%；其他目的占4.7%/
外国人按国别分：日本占20.2%，菲律宾占1.0%，泰国1.7%，新加坡5.5%，印度尼西亚占1.3%，马来西亚占3.4%，韩国占13.5%，蒙古占1.4%，英国占4.5%，法国占3.9%，德国占3.0%，俄罗斯占7.2%，美国占10.9%，加拿大占3.4%，澳大利亚占3.1%，其他占15.9%。

二，入境游客在境内花费及其构成情况

2005年入境过夜旅游者在境内人均天花费154.16美元，比上年下降1.71%，其中：外国人
167.33美元/人天，下降2.18%，香港同胞117.10美元/人天，下降.28%，澳门同胞100.04美元/人天，下降13.60%，台湾同胞152.70美元/人天，增长0.36%。
入境过夜旅游者在境内人均花费924.96美元，比上年增长1.7%，其中：外国过夜旅游者人均花费1087.65美元，增长0.9%，香港同胞人均花费421.56美元，下降了7.4%，澳门同胞人均花费480.19美元，增长6.3%，台湾同胞人均花费1191.06美元，增长0.4%。
入境一日游游客在境内人均花费38.63美元，比上年减少3.91美元，下降9.2%，其中：外国游客人均花费41.63美元，下降8.0%，香港同胞人均花费33.41美元，增长6.5%，澳门同胞人均花费32.58美元，下降26.1%，台湾同胞人均花费59.68美元，下降16.9%。
入境过夜旅游者的花费构成情况是：长途交通费占总花费的31.2%，住宿费占14.2%，餐饮费占9.0%，游览费占3.8%，娱乐费占5.3%，购物费占20.9%，市内交通费占2.1%，邮电通讯费占2.5%，其他费用占11.0%。与上年相比，过夜旅游者在长途交通、住宿、餐饮和购物等方面的支出比例有所增加，在游览、娱乐、市内交通、邮电通讯和其他费用那个等方面的支出比例有所减少。
入境一日游游客花费的构成是：交通费占17.4%，餐饮费占13.1%，游览费占8.0%，娱乐费占1.08%，购物费占30.3%，邮电通讯费占6.6%，其他费用占13.8%。与上年相比，一日游游客在交通、餐饮、游览、娱乐、邮电通讯和其他费用等方面的支出比例有不同程度的增加、在购物方面的支出比例有所减少。
在入境游客的花费中，不包括国际(地区)间交通费和境外履行商（社）收取的劳务费。

三，入境过夜旅游者在境内停留时间

2005年入境游客抽样调查结果显示：
1，入境过夜旅游者在境内的停留时间为6.0天，比上年年延长0.2天，入境过夜旅游者中
43.5%的旅游者在境内停留1-3天。36.5%的旅游者停留4-7天，外国人、台湾同胞停留时间较长，停留8天以上的分别占23.0%和27.6%，香港同胞、澳门同胞在境内的停留时间较短，近60%的旅游者仅停留1-3天，其中香港同胞在境内停留8天以上的仅为6.9%。
2，从入境过夜旅游者的出游方式看，参加旅行团的团体旅游者在境内的停留时间短于散客。团体旅游者在境内平均停留5.6天，散客旅游者在境内平均停留6.1天
3，从入境过夜旅游者构成看：外国人平均停留6.5天，比上年延长0.2天，香港同胞平均停留3.6天，缩短0.2天，澳门同胞平均停留4.8天，延长0.9天，台湾同胞平均停留7.8天，与上年持平。
4，在不同性别的人入境过夜旅游者中，男性旅游者的平均停留时间稍长于女性旅游者，分别为6.1天，5.7天。
5，在不同年龄段的入境过夜旅游者中，65岁及以上的旅游者停留时间最长，为7.9天，其中台湾同胞在大陆停留时间达到9.4天；15-24岁和45-64岁旅游者的停留时间均超过了6天；停留时间较短的是14岁以下的少年儿童和25-44岁的青年旅游者，分别为5.8天和5.5天，其中澳门少年儿童在内地的停留时间最短，仅为3.2天。
6，在不同职业的入境过夜旅游者中，退休人员的停留时间最长，为7.0天，其次是学生，停留时间为6.9天，停留时间最短的是商贸人员，其平均停留时间仅为4.3天，比总平均停留时间短1.7天。
7，在不同旅行目的的入境过夜旅游者中，以文体交流为主要目的的旅行者在境内的停留时间最长，为7.1天，比上年延长了0.6天，其次是宗教朝拜和商务旅游者，在境内的停留时间超过了6.0的平均水平，分别为6.9天和6.4天，探亲访友、观光旅游和休闲度假的旅游者在境内的停留时间为5.9天，5.7天和5.4天，而以会议为主要目的的旅游者平均在境内的停留时间最短，为4.6天，与上年相比延长了0.4天。

四，入境游客来华（内地）次数

2005年入境游客来华（内地）次数的总体情况是：
1、入境游客以多次来华（内地）为主，如镜4次以上的过夜旅游者和一日游游客所占比
例分别为47.7%和63.4%，其中过夜游与上年基本持平，一日游游客增长7.0%；第一次来华（内地）旅游的过夜旅游者和一日游游客所占比例分别为27.9%和20.4%，分别比上年下降2.1%和2.3%。
2、初次来华的入境过夜旅游者主要是团队旅游者，而数次来华的入境过夜旅游者则以散客为主。调查中，团队旅游这第一次入境的占53.4%，比上年减少一个百分点；三可旅游者入境4次以上的占64.4%，比上年增加2.7个百分点。
3、在入境游客中，首次入境的外国游客比例相对较高，占38.2%；在港台同胞中，多次（4次以上）入境的游客所占比例远远高于首次游客，其中香港同胞来中国内地4次以上的占84.4%，比上年增加2.7个百分点。
4、从全国各省（区、市）的请款过来看，经济发达、交通便利的省市和边境口岸省区，接待首次来本地旅游的入境旅游人数比例一般都比较低，如北京、内蒙古、辽宁、吉林、上海、浙江、福建、广东接待的首次来本地区的游客人数比例均不超过50%；大部分省区接待首次来本地区的入境游客比例相对较高，其中山西、河南、湖南、陕西、甘肃和青海接待第一次到本地的游客人数超过75%。

五，入境游客的行程

2005年，入境游客在境内的行程有以下特点：
1，入境游客仍以短程为主，游览的城市以1-3座居多，占被调查者的84.6%，游览4-6座城市和一次游览7座以上城市的游客分别占11.3%和4.1%。
2、团体游客的平均行程普遍长于散客，团体游客游览4座以上城市的占23.2%，比上年增加了3.2个百分点，散客仅占11.7%，比上年减少1.4个百分点。
3、在入境游客中，台湾同胞的行程相对较长，一次游览4座以上城市的均超过20%；外国同胞和澳门同胞一次游览4座以上城市的分别为17.8%和13.6%；香港同胞的行程最短，93%的游客只游览1-3座城市，游览4座以上城市的不足10%。

六，入境游客的流向

2005年对入境游客抽样调查资料显示，在入境外国游客中，到我国一日游游客和以我国为最终旅游目的地的游客居于主要地位，85.0%的游客出境后返回各自的国家。

七，入境过夜旅游者对住宿设施的选择

2005年入境过夜旅游者对住宿设施的选择是：选择宾馆饭店住宿的人天数占其总人天数的59.8%，比上年增加了9.6个百分点；选择公寓住宿的人天数占10.3%，比上年减少了5.6个百分点；在私人住所住宿的人天数占24.2%，比上年增加了5.5个百分点。此外，还有5.7%的入境过夜旅游者在车船或者招待所等旅游住宿设施中住宿。
2005年对入境过夜旅游者选择住宿设施的调查表明：
1，入境过夜者对指数设施的选择主要是宾馆饭店，占被调查者的59.8%，其次是私人住所，占被调查者的24.2%。
2、外国过夜旅游者选择宾馆饭店的比例普遍高于其他旅游者，65.2%的外国旅游者选择在宾馆饭店住宿；与外国人相比，香港、澳门和台湾同胞选择私人住所的比例较高，分别达40.3%、48.1%和39.7%，与上年相比，这一比例均有所增长，其中，澳门同胞增加了24.5个百分点。
3、在入境过夜旅游者中，团体旅游者选择宾馆饭店住宿的比例与上年有所增长，增加了3.1个百分点，团体旅游者选择宾馆饭店住宿的比例（93.4%）远远高于散客（48.3%），而散客选择私人住所住宿的比例（31.87% ）又相对高于团体旅游者（2.2%）。

八，入境游客对旅游服务质量的评价

2005年入境游客对旅游服务质量总评价较好，在对宾馆饭店、餐饮、交通、娱乐、购物、导游和邮电通讯等七个方面的服务质量评价中，入境游客认为质量“尚好”以上的得分率与上年相比稍有变化，其中满意率最高的仍是宾馆饭店，评价“尚好”以上的人数占95.8%，比上年增加了0.4个百分点。在本次调查中，入境游客对餐饮的服务质量仍给予了比较高的评价，评价“尚好”以上的占91.5%，比上年减少了0.8个百分点；游客对交通、娱乐、购物、导游服务和邮电通讯比较满意，评价“尚好”以上的分别占被调查者的78.6%、85.3%、88.4%、88.6%和86.9%，与上年相比，游客对娱乐、购物和导游这3方面服务的满意率都有所提高，对交通和邮电通讯的满意率有所降低。

九，入境游客对旅游接待设施的评价

旅游接待设施包括：旅游宾馆/饭店设施、餐饮设施、交通设施、娱乐设施、购物场所设置、游览/参观点的接待设施和旅游区（点）厕所等七个部分。
入境游客对宾馆、餐饮、娱乐、购物和游览/参观点等接待设施的评价较好，评价为“最好”（5分）、“好”（4分）、“尚好”（3分）的比例合计在85%以上，其中对宾馆饭店接待设施的评价最高，评价“尚好”以上的高达95.4%，与上年基本持平，提高了0.1个百分点。
在旅游接待设施中，入境游客满意率最低的仍然是旅游区（点）厕所。

十，入境游客感兴趣的旅游资源
2005年入境游客感兴趣的旅游资源仍集中在山水风光和文物古迹方面，对民俗风情和饮食烹调也有浓厚的兴趣。入境游客对山水风光感兴趣的占52.9%；对文物古迹有极大兴趣的达43.4%；对民俗风情和饮食烹调有浓厚兴趣的分别达36.7%和33.4%。游客感兴趣的旅游资源还有文化艺术和旅游购物，分别占被调查者的26.6%和26.7%。
在被调查的入境游客中，台湾同胞对祖国的山水风光情有独钟，表示有浓厚兴趣的比例达61.2%；外国游客对中国旅游资源的兴趣比较广泛，除对山水风光和文物古迹有较浓厚的兴趣之外，对民俗风情、文化艺术、饮食烹调和旅游商品也有较大兴趣，选择的比例分别为36.5%、28.2%、34.4%和27.8%。港澳同胞除对山水风光和文物古迹等旅游资源有兴趣外，还对民俗风情等旅游资源表现出了浓厚的兴趣，其中，香港同胞选择民俗风情和饮食烹调的比例分别达到了35.7和34.3，澳门同胞选择民俗风情的比例达到了35.5%。

十一，入境游客感兴趣的旅游商品

旅游购物作为旅游的六大要素之一，在游客的消费支出中占有较大比例。在2005年入境游客花费抽样调查中，将旅游商品分为服装/丝绸，中成药/保健品，食品/茶叶、酒类/香烟、瓷器/陶器、文物复制品/字画、地毯/挂毯、首饰/珍珠、胶卷/电器、具有地方特色的纪念品/工艺品等十大类。在这十类旅游商品中，入境游客最感兴趣的首先是食品/茶叶、具有地方特色的旅游纪念品/工艺品和服装/丝绸，超过三分之一的被调查者选择了这3类旅游商品。其次是中成药/保健品和瓷器/陶器，20.9%和21.8%的游客表示对这两类旅游商品有较大兴趣。
不同的游客对旅游商品的兴趣各有侧重。外国游客感兴趣的旅游商品主要是服装/丝绸、食品/茶叶和具有地方特色的纪念品/工艺品，选择率分别为38.3%、39.9%和39.7%；香港同胞感兴趣的旅游商品主要有食品/茶叶、具有地方特色的纪念品/工艺品和服装/丝绸，选择率分别为47.6%、34.4%和33.7%；澳门同胞感兴趣的旅游商品是食品/茶叶、纪念品/工艺品和服装/丝绸，选择率分别为36.5%、34.2%和33.4%；台湾同胞喜好的首先是纪念品/工艺品，选择率达39.2%，其次是食品/茶叶和服装/丝绸，选择率分别为37.7%和32.3%。

2005年中国国内旅游市场抽样调查综合分析

国家旅游局政策法规司近日发布了2005年中国国内旅游抽样调查综合分析，现摘编如下：
-----------国内旅游总人数为12.12亿人次，比上年增长10.0%
-----------国内旅游总收入为5285.86亿元，比上年增长12.2%
-----------国内游客人均花费436.1元/人次，比上年增长10.2%

一．全国城镇居民旅游和农村居民旅游的总体情况
1、城镇居民国内旅游情况
2005年，我国城镇居民出游人次率（以下简称为出游率）为135.1%，国内旅游出游人数为4.96亿人次，国内旅游出游花费为3656.13亿元，游客每次出游人均花费（以下简称人均花费）为731.1元/人次。
2、农村居民国内旅游情况
农村居民国内旅游人次数为7.16亿人次，出油率为75.8%，出游人均花费为227.6元/人次，
国内旅游花费为1629.73亿元。

二．第二、三季度城镇居民国内旅游抽样调查结果
1、出游人数构成
按“家庭平均月收入”分组，月收入在5000元以上的出游人数为13.9%；月收入在4000-4999的出游人数在11.1%；月收入在3000-3999的出游人数占18.1%；月收入在2000-2999元的出游人数占23.7%；月收入在1000-1999元的出游人数占24.2%；月收入在500-999元的出游人数占6.5%；500元以下的出游人数占2.5%。
按“旅游目的”分组，观光旅游的出游人数占44.9%；探亲访友的占23.5%；上午的出游人数占20%；会议的出游人数占3.7%；度假/休闲的出游人数占18.5%；宗教/朝拜的出游人数占1.5%；文化/教育/科技交流的出游人数占1.5%；其他旅游目的出游人数占4.4%。
按“旅游方式”分组，单位组织的出游数占15.8%；个人的出游人数占25.7%；与亲朋结伴的出游人数占44.6%；旅行社组织的占13.9%。
2、游客每次出游人均花费
25-44岁的人均花费水平提高，从年龄段来看，14岁以下的人均花费最低，为462.5元，15-24岁的678.4元，25-44岁的958.6元，45-64岁的751.5元，65岁以上的651.5元。
按“职业”分组，公务员平均花费1392.9元，企事业管理人员1143.6元，专业/文教技术人员962.4元，离退休人员655.7元，学生599.9元，其他职业人员722.9元。
按“家庭平均月收入”分组，月收入在5000元以上的游客人均花费1145.8元，4000-4999元的游客人均花费在1033.7元，3000-3999元的游客人均花费851.7元，2000-2999元的游客人均花费678.8元，1000-1999元的游客人均花费648.9元，500-999元的游客人均花费436.1元，500元以下的490.3元。
按“旅游目的”分组，观光旅游的人均花费858.3元，探亲访友的668.5元，上午的1263.9元，公务会议的1777.7元，度假/休闲的497.3元，宗教/朝拜的415.0元，文化/教育/科技交流的1709.3元，其他旅游目的的689.0元。
三，农村居民国内旅游抽样调查情况
1、农村居民国内旅游出游人数
不同收入水平的农村居民国内旅游出游人数
按调查期内“家庭年收入人均收入”分组，年收入在5000元以上的农村居民国内旅游出游
人数占12..1%；年收入在4000-4999元的农民国内旅游出游人数占11.3%；年收入在3000-3999的农民国内旅游出游人数占23.4%；年收入在2500-2999元的农民国内旅游人数占15.5%；年收入在2000-2499元的农民国内旅游出游人数占17.8%；年收入在1500-1999元的占13.2%；年收入在1500以下的农民国内旅游出游人数占6.7%。
不同旅游目的的农村居民国内旅游出游人数
按“旅游”目的分组，观光旅游的农民国内旅游人数占11.1%；度假/休闲的农民国内旅游人数占3.8%；探亲访友的占64.4%；商务的占3.0%；会议的占2.9%；宗教/朝拜的占0.9%；文体科技交流的占1.2%；健康医疗的占4.3%；其他旅游目的的占8.9%。从以上调查资料我们可以看出：农民参加国内旅游人数最多的是探亲访友。
2、农村居民国内旅游的人均花费
按“性别”分组，男性农村居民的国内旅游的人均花费708.0元，女性农村居民国内旅游
的人均花费663.7元。
按调查期内“家庭年人均收入”分组，年收入在5000元以上的农民国内旅游人均花费1220.5元；年收入在4000-4999的农民国内旅游人均花费736.7元；年收入在3000-3999的农民国内旅游人均花费680.7元；年收入在2500-2999的农民国内旅游人均花费564.8元；年收入在2000-2499元的农民国内旅游人均花费612.3元；年收入在1500-1999元的农民国内旅游人均花费567.4元；年收入在1500元以下的农民国内旅游人均花费455.1元。
按“旅游目的”分组，观光游览的农民国内旅游人均花费1319.7元；度假/休闲的农民国内旅游人均花费707.1元；探亲访友的农民国内旅游人均花费460.9元；商务的农民国内旅游人均花费1159.8元；会议的农民国内旅游人均花费508.8元；文体科技交流的农民国内旅游人均花费1351.4元；宗教/朝拜的农民国内旅游人均花费934.5元；健康医疗的农民国内旅游人均花费2430.7元；其他旅游目的的农民国内旅游人均花费533.9元。

When Mars hit Earth

2005-01-13T03:05:00.000+08:00

USD/CAD, 1 min chart

I aways think that USD/CAD is the most untradable currency pair for news trading. The reason is simple, most Canadian economic data will be released at 8:30 ET when U.S. economic data is also released. Then the movement of USD/CAD after 8:30 ET can be very complex. Even we suppose USD or CAD will respond positively and linearly to the difference between actual data and consensus, we still have 4 combinations of aftermath -- USD+/CAD+, USD+/CAD-, USD-/CAD+, USD-/CAD-. Only when USD and CAD have contrary movement direction, trader can hold his position and let the profit run a little long distance. If we relax the restriction on hypothetic conditions and suppose either currency responds nonlinearly, we will find it is extremely hard to trade USD/CAD in short-term after 8:30 ET, much much harder than trade EUR/USD, GBP/USD, etc., where only USD responds to new economic data.

Well, today we saw a dramatic movement after 8:30 ET of USD/CAD, when U.S. got a very bad trade balance, actual $60.3B to consensus $54B and previous $55.5B, on the other hand Canada got a very good trade balance, actual C$7.3B to consensus C$4.5B and previous C$4.4B. That was I called Mars hit Earth! USD/CAD fell 170 pips within 3 minutes!

When we trade currency, we prefer to buy the strongest and sell the weakest. There are many factors can make a currency strong or weak in short-term, for example friction around key support level or resistance level. In the news front, no other pair can compete with USD/CAD in short-term because of the 8:30 ET effect. However, we need not only analysis and preparation, but also LUCK to make money by trading USD/CAD (loonie) in short-term. In addition, there is a technical difficulty. When all news providers pour their real time reports on U.S. economic data at 8:30 ET, Canadian data may be late in 1 minute. Since Canadian is not so important as American, he can hardly be the first one in a queue.

Saved myself from a massacre

2005-01-09T23:33:00.000+08:00

Massacre after NFP, EUR/USD, 1 min chart

As I planned in the post 'European-U.K. session may tell what market thinks', when EUR/USD fell below 1.3215 at 13:00 GMT on Jan 7th, I closed my position which was built in the previous day aiming at possible sooner end of dollar correction in small profit and waited NFP release at sideline. The European-U.K. session obviously told me the recent dollar bulls didn't feel a bad NFP number too risky for them and they were prepared and confident. That market sentiment forced me to abandon strong optimism that dollar correction was close to an end and made me very cautious and prudent to open the next position. Fortunately, my caution and prudence saved me later. I called the aftermath of NFP release was a massacre. Please look at the above chart, which was EUR/USD movement around and after 13:30 GMT. The number was 157K, a little weaker than the consensus 175K. The market was soon in a big chaos and a real battle began between dollar bears and bulls immediately. Anyone who opened new position with a tight stop loss order became the victims of the massacre, no matter his position was short or long.

The actual NFP number can not be called good, well, can not be called bad either, because it had only 18K difference to the consensus and the predominant market sentiment before the number was the recent dollar correction most likely to continue if the actual number was not too bad. I decided to enter market only after EUR/USD made a clear way. My experience told me once such kind of battle had a result, the winner would lead the rate to go farther along their favorite direction. At last, dollar bulls won and the rate dived below 1.3140, former low (also the neckline of an M-form for EUR/USD in daily chart), took my stop entry order set at 1.3135 and fell another 100 pips after that. The reasons I placed stop entry order at 1.3135 were first I would like to see a clear result of the battle and second 1.3135 was technically a significant support level where mass stop loss orders for dollar bears may cluster (market self-fulfillment increased this possibility).

After write down my operation and idea on last Friday, I recommend an article by Barbara Rockefeller in Jan's issue of Currency Trader Magazine, called 'The Big Picture'. This article can be regarded as an continuation of her another article in Oct's issue last year (please search it in my previous post). Both tell readers how market will respond to fundamental news. It is a pity that I couldn't recommend another article in this month's issue because I don't find another informative one.

January 2005 issue of CTM is now available!

2005-01-08T20:16:00.000+08:00

Very Timely! I am going to read it on Sunday and may recommend certain articles.

European-U.K. session may tell what market thinks

2005-01-07T15:51:00.000+08:00

As I post yesterday, I bought EUR/USD @1.3170 which was U.K-U.S. session's low. After that, EUR/USD ever tried to test 1.3140 when U.K. session was over but failed. The current rate is 1.3190.

No profit taking for yesterday. I suspect if there will be a profit taking in today's European-U.K. session. Although EUR/USD still hold 1.3140 for now, I admit that I originally thought there should have been an profit taking upward move for EUR/USD in yesterday's U.S. session since it had already fallen for 6 days and NFP would come out within 24 hours. Yes, in my previous post I ever declared a good NFP # should not benefit dollar bulls too much. But now I doubt a bad NFP # should not benefit dollar bears too much either. Anyway, the market behavior tells the market sentiment. So EUR/USD does possible continue to fall after a brief spike high as the aftermath of a bad NFP #. The reason is quite simpe, otherwise we should have already seen a profit taking for EUR/USD.

I read an article yesterday from WSJ Chinese version (still free). One fx trader said the key to conclude whether U.S. current account deficit is still a usable execuse in 2005 for long-term dollar bears would be what market behaves in U.S. trade balance data release (Nov, 2004), on Jan 12, Wed. I agree with that. I make an analogy, what market will respond to NFP # today is based upon how it behaves before U.S. session.

If EUR/USD breaks through 1.3215 before 13:00 GMT, I will hold yesterday's position and lift its s/l order to breakeven; Besides, I will place an buy stop entry order at an appropriate level beyond the current rate at that time with an s/l order for it 20 pips below; If a good NFP # release, I will close yesterday's position as soon as possible and cancel the new buy stop entry order, then wait and see what will happen;
If EUR/USD is in range trading between 1.3215 and 1.3140, I will close yesterday's position no matter whether it is in profit or loss; Then wait for data, good to buy and bad to sell;
If EUR/USD breaches 1.3130 (which may induce stop loss selling below 1.3140), my yesterday's position will be stopped out automatically; I will place an sell stop entry order at an appropriate level below the current rate at 13:00 GMT with an s/l order for it 20 pips above; If a bad NFP # release, I will rush into market to buy EUR/USD but be very cautious to any possible new dollar buying by the underlying force which has bought dollar for 6 days and be ready to close that new-build position at any moment; Unless I see heavy selling of EUR/USD after that, I will not follow it.

One example of trading plan with analysis

2005-01-06T18:28:00.000+08:00

After 5 day's consective fall, EUR/USD is going to test 1.3140 resistance in European session today. Current low is 1.3173. I don't know if dollar bulls will manage to break through 1.3140 on Thu, but there are still no obvious profit taking activities for medium-term dollar bulls and those short-term ones who are riding the train. Besides, long-term dollar bears are just silently watching the correction. Of course, it is not wise for long-term dollar bears to enter the market build new positions before tomorrow's NFP. With a good NFP, they can enter the market in a more preferable level. However, why medium-term and short-term dollar bulls are so aggressive or risk-seeking at this time? Do they think it is a good excuse to protect their positions that good NFP will comfort Uncle Greenspan to lift rate 50 bps in Feb? They have to expect, if a bad NFP comes out, all the market participants, including long, medium and short terms will sell dollar together and the next available price for dollar bulls to quit may be far away.

That is scenario I. Is there scenario II that it is the long-term dollar bears who are paring their positions making and protecting the dollar correction (in this case, call it dollar reverse more appropriately)? But if long-term dollar bears sell EUR/USD, who are buying at a still high level? After all majority of medium-term and short-term players are defined more by their usable capitals, not by their IQs.

Let me show my plan for EUR/USD today (ending at 22:00 GMT).

I won't touch before U.S. session open;
If rate dives below 1.3140 but followering flows little (judged by the width of 5 min's bar), I will buy around there and set s/l order @1.3090;
If rate dives below 1.3140 aggressively (some stop loss orders under which should be triggered), I will wait to see if 1.3100 can hold (which might be briefly breached by the aftermath of 1.3140 stops hunting), if 1.3100 can hold after earthquake I will buy there and set s/l order @1.3060; I omit the solution for that rate dives aggressively below 1.3100, I think the possibility is little;
If rate doesn't test 1.3140 at all before London market close (16:00 GMT) today, I will set buy limit day order @ U.K./U.S. session low and set s/l order @1.3130.

T2W's Knowledge Lab

2005-01-05T18:00:00.000+08:00

T2W's Knowledge Lab

I read an informative article in Trader2Win's forex forum called FX Market Participants written by GammaJammer, member of T2W, MoneyTec and maybe EliteTrader as well, and found a cluster of such kind of articles in T2W's Knowledge Lab yesterday. For now I don't have enough time to read all of them. Hope can get some useful information from the lab later.

What Fed really worry about?

2005-01-05T15:59:00.000+08:00

Let's look at excerpts from the statement.

A number of participants cited the recent depreciation of the dollar on foreign exchange markets, elevated energy costs, and the possibility of a slowing in underlying productivity growth as factors tending to boost the upside risks to their inflation outlook, though, on net, they saw the risks to stable underlying inflation as still balanced.

The recent decline in the dollar would raise import prices and diminish competitive pressures on many industries. Besides, a number of participants expressed doubts that domestic and global financial imbalances would be reduced in the near-term.

Oil prices had fallen of late, though, they were still considerably higher than they had been in the spring.

In addition, productivity growth had slowed appreciably in the most recent quarter and unit labor costs had increased, raising questions about cost pressures going forward.

Some participants believed that prolonged period of policy accommodation had generated a significant degree of liquidity that might be contributing to signs of potentially excessive risk-taking in financial markets.

Well, upside risks of inflation outlook were worries of only some or a number of participants of FOMC Dec's meeting. Mr. Greenspan should not belong to that group of pessimists. Do you thing so? :)

NFP # still significant now?

2005-01-04T15:27:00.000+08:00

The latest two NFP number, Nov's and Dec's of 2004, both were not bad but dollar's corrections vs euro after the number release were both easily defeated by dollar shorts re-entry. There were two reasons for that. First, it seemed no matter whether NFP number was good or bad, Fed would keep hike rate in a 'measured' pace. Second, even when market's consensus was Fed funds rate would continue to rise maybe to 3.75%, dollar had still been aggressively sold across the board since the mid-Oct. Well the excuse of dollar shorts were the current account deficit of U.S.. I say it was an excuse because before U.S. presidential election, the harm of current account deficit was as severe as after that and even though Kerr had been the president, this problem could not been changed; on the other hand, in the very near term, net capital inflow to U.S. was still able to balance the current account deficit. There was no possibility of dollar crisis then. I suspected the recent dollar drop in fx market was because the dollar shorts, maybe hedge funds leading them, simply fulfilled their plans to make better revenues in the last quarter for the whole 2004. Only to push dollar downward was much easier than upward as there were obvious excuse and U.S. govt obviously possessed a 'weak dollar' policy.

EUR/USD dived to 1.3384 and GBP/USD dived to 1.8979 in yesterday's Asian market, a very thin market since only Hongkong, Singapore and some Middle East Market opened their markets. Stop orders under 1.3500 for EUR/USD and under 1.9100 for GBP/USD were swept away for sure. However, I doubt there were no large amount of stop orders under 1.3400 for EUR/USD and under 1.9000 for GBP/USD. Otherwise, the rush under such levels could have been much more than 16pip and 21pip. And shortly after the breaches of 1.3400 and 1.9000, euro and pound sterling rised also wildly back to 1.3572 and 1.9156 in the afternoon of Hongkong local time or moring of Middle East local time. I merely want to illustrate that from the above elaboration, for example for EUR/USD, if there were stop orders, they more likely clustered around 1.3500 instead of 1.3400 and their owners were more likely medium-term euro longers who bought euro between 1.3500 and 1.3600. After Monday's dive, I opin no old medium-term euro longers for now. For long-term euro longers, their tolerance to hold their longs in a correction of EUR/USD seems far below 1.3400 and possibly around 1.3250.

Dec's ISM index well fell in consensus, 58.6 vs 58.5, although its employment index was at 52.7 vs Nov's 57.6. It may shade the coming Dec's NFP number. From today to Friday, there will be no other index important than these two. In the first paragraph, I doubt NFP were not and maybe will be not the excuse for long-term players. And in the second paragraph, I suppose long-term euro longers are not going to reduce their positions until EUR/USD dives below 1.3250. From the above deduction, I expect the history in Nov and Dec of 2004 will repeat if EUR/USD holds 1.3250 before the release, a good NFP number will only give a good opportunity for long-term euro longers to add more long positions and for medium-term players to build their new euro long positions at a preferable level. A bad NFP number will be worse for dollar.

Eurusdtrader.com and news trading

2005-01-03T20:04:00.000+08:00

Jimmy, the founder of eurusdtrader.com

My first news trading was in 2003 when U.S. Army began to invade Iraq. I remember that was a Friday and the Army would face an intensive resistance of Iraqi National Guards and a first time real battle in the weekend. The outcome can hardly be expected. But I suddenly had an opinion that whether U.S. Army or Irais took a big defeat, the fx rate of U.S. Dollar would change largely (in short-term). Because none of the market participants, whoever were small or big ones, was able to predict who would be the winner just like me, they would rush into the market to respond to the outcome of the battle on the next Monday, Australian local time. So I bought EUR/USD with a tight stop loss order and a rather distant take profit order, and bought USD/JPY with the same two types of order as well in the last minute of Friday's market open time. EUR/USD and USD/JPY have negative correlation to some extent. As such, I would make a profit no matter what direction U.S. Dollar would like to take on the next Monday. I really made profit finally. I ever posted the idea for this case in a Chinese fx traders' forum and received appreciation from other members. I thought some of other members did also already find this trick independently. For myself, my background is in Science instead of Economics or Finance. Since I only had less than 1/2 year fx trading experience then, although I heard of some indicators like GDP, CPI, PPI, PMI, ISM, NFP, etc., I didn't know the importance of those indicators to fx market. I didn't know some of them can also throw a bomb into the market as an clear outcome of an expected counterbalanced battle.

Occasionally, I found eurusdtrader.com in MoneyTec forum. The founder of the site, Jimmy, whose major was in finance, had 20-year trading experience in banks. Jimmy introduced this trick -- to straddle spot price with one entry buy and the other entry sell right before economic indicator release or treasury/central bank official's speech or Fed/ECB/MPC rate decision and minutes. The most important contribution of Jimmy was he did a thorough statistic work on spot fx rate behaviors after a group of economic indicators release. This group included a lot of current economic indicators of different countries like U.S., U.K., Eurozone, Canada, etc.. His research quantified different intensities of spot fx rate move of different economic indicators release and classified those indicators into tradable ones and intradable ones. I don't want to repeat in this post what Jimmy showed to the public in his website. Everyone who is interested in Jimmy's work please visit Jimmy's site by yourself. Jimmy ever held an online course how to do news trading and advised individual traders to trade news real time by an IM-like software.

Because online retail fx dealers lose much money when they used guaranteed stop order as an advertisement attracting investors from equity market to join in fx online trading, besides NFP number which was ever the key factor influencing market expectations on Fed's rate decision, always came out far from what market had expected in 2004, they finally all abandoned stop order guarantee. This policy change almost killed this type of news trading (or Jimmy called it pseudo news trading -- simply to straddle spot fx rate) immediately.

Pseudo news trading and easy money are all gone now. One must really understand the fundamental factors and at the same time possess an timely and accurate feeling on the market current sentiment to do real news trading. Please read page 18~24 in Oct's issue of Currency Trader Magazine to learn relevant knowledge -- a very nice article by Barbara Rockefeller. It seems Jimmy also change his services accordingly. He gets CTA certificate and expands his managed account program. He also begin a new traing program which I see from the topics of lectures with more fundamental contents than before. Anyway, that is reflecting the reality.

Happy New Year

2005-01-01T09:20:00.000+08:00

Canadian dollar, Yen and Dollar all advanced in the last day trading of last year. I will write down my analysis of the market for next week before Monday. And in this weekend, I prefer to introduce a very nice website eurusdtrader.com, which was the best site for news trading research in last year. Combined with one article in the Currency Trader Magazine, I would like to give out a review of news trading, which was ever the most effective strategy in 2004. Wait it!

Happy New Year!

Narrow range trading

2004-12-29T07:02:00.000+08:00

Euro was in a narrow range trading between 1.3590 and 1.3640 on Tuesday, no big jump. Better than expected US's Dec Consumer Confidence (102.3 vs consensus 94.0) weighed euro from 1.3635 down to 1.3588, but euro managed to brake there and held above 1.3600 later. I tried to buy a small euro's corrective low around 1.3600 in European session as I planed, but failed. Euro was bought from the beginning of this session and then didn't came back to 1.3600 until 20 minutes after the Consumer Confidence data. Unfortunately, I bought euro relatively high at 1.3635 because I saw the price was steady in the first two 5 minutes after data. In a normal market, a deviating from expected data seldom receives response of the market for more than 10 minutes so that I thought the neglect of the good data would lift euro. But this time, the market responded 20 minutes later.

Euro jumps in a thin market. Why?

2004-12-28T07:07:00.000+08:00

EUR/USD Daily Chart

London markets closed on Monday. After a quiet range trading in European session, euro suddenly jumped at 10:00 EST. One and a half hours later, it touched 1.3640 and rised almost 100 pips! In my previous analysis of euro's possible action in year-end holidays, although I did agree euro would continue its rise, I totally didn't expect such a ferocious rise. Besides, normally Monday is the most silent day for fx market.

I try to figure out who is behind buying euro in the 1 1/2 hours. As I have written, I am inclined to believe short term players are mostly top pickers who always prepare to sell euro at that high level. Short term players may also include momentum traders who want to buy/sell along the direction of price change when there is a sudden move out there, but it is rare they produce such kind of sudden move in the markets by themselves. Momentum traders are parasites. And if we suppose ECB would do something when euro is very close to 1.4000, the r/r ratio for medium players to long euro at 1.3550 is obviously relatively low. Now the long term players. Originally, I thought if long term players want to build positions in a thin market, their costs would be very high. So I got the conclusion that long term players would not buy euro in the year-end holidays. My assumption was long term players to build positions. The assumption may be wrong. Let's look at the daily chart above. There is possibility that the fresh long positions of long term players had been built when EUR/USD consolidated between 1.3100 and 1.3400. Long term players had at least two opportunities to buy euro when it dipped below 1.3200. The cost of their fresh long positions should be about 1.3250, as the horizontal black line shows. If I was the long term players, when the first mission had been accomplished, I would had prayed for a rising euro. :) Well, when there is no outside force to help fulfill my wish, I have to rely on myself. However, if I can successfully practise my plan by only paying a little additional cost, I will be satisfied. Let me draw the new conclusion. Considering current fundamental factors, e.g. so called US twin deficits crisis, US government's weak dollar policy and ECB's inaction, maybe only a small portion of players will think of buying dollar/selling euro. A year-end thin market reduces the number of this group of players further. Thus, to use a small amount of money to push euro 100 pips higher can be not only feasible but also easy. It just adds a little to the total cost of long term players but their unrealized profits of outstanding positions now increasing 100 pips more for each lot! A good deal, isn't it?

I reckon euro will also move aggressively higher in the last 4 days this year, based on my deduction above. I will buy EUR/USD in European session's low (despite London market continues to close on Tuesday) and set up tight stop loss order. Let's wait and see what will happen in next US session.

A nice digital magazine

2004-12-27T21:58:00.000+08:00

Currency Trader Magazine

Currency Trader Magazine is a nice digital magazine. I found its link in Elite Trader's currency trading forum. So far you can get free downloads of its current and back issures. I have read the Dec's and a half of the Oct's. There are really articles worthy of reading. I may write some comments later on some articles I am interested in.

Euro hit new high and long term futures player bet higher euro in 2005

2004-12-27T07:08:00.000+08:00

COT Charts -- Euro FX, Dec 17, 2004

In Christmas Eve, EUR/USD touched 1.3547, highest level since euro was born. I didn't expect this move for my opinion was euro longs would break through 1.3500 at the beginning of Jan, 2005. Traders also need to have rest and enjoy their holiday, right? I am inclined to believe this move purely aimed at options above 1.3550 which will expire next week, by short term players, as media reported. In a year-end thin market, if long term players are behind this move, their costs to build positions will be very high. As to medium term players, if their profit objective is not at 1.4000, their longs r/r ratio will be merely 1 because their support level is far at 1.3140.

From the chart of Euro FX COT report on Dec 17 (the latest one should have been published at 3:30 pm ET Dec 24, but I understand CFTC's clerks might be in the planes back home at that time), one can see commercial traders (blue line) reduced their short euro positions dramatically as 1.3000 was breached and turned their net position into long on Dec 14. Short takers must have been passively cut their massive positions by stop loss orders and at the same time, more and more commercial traders bet euro would run higher in 2005 because commercial traders are hedgers and long term traders. Large speculators and small traders all pare their long positions to lock in profits so that they will have more ammo to produce another wave of euro's climbling. This analysis doesn't mean I think fx futures players move the spot fx rates, the volumn of fx futures market only holds a small share of the total fx transaction volumn so far. But it still make some sense to regard fx futures market as a proxy of spot market. Obvious discrepancy between futures market and spot market will induce arbitrage naturally.

The coming week's market will be even thinner. Please refer to http://www.dailyfx.com/calendar/FXCalendar.html to see which day the market will still keep open. Japan's Nov consumer prices, UK's nationwide house prices, and US's NAPM-Chicago may shake the market a little bit. Especially poor UK's data may weigh the already sluggish pound sterling down further.