One example of trading plan with analysis

After 5 day's consective fall, EUR/USD is going to test 1.3140 resistance in European session today. Current low is 1.3173. I don't know if dollar bulls will manage to break through 1.3140 on Thu, but there are still no obvious profit taking activities for medium-term dollar bulls and those short-term ones who are riding the train. Besides, long-term dollar bears are just silently watching the correction. Of course, it is not wise for long-term dollar bears to enter the market build new positions before tomorrow's NFP. With a good NFP, they can enter the market in a more preferable level. However, why medium-term and short-term dollar bulls are so aggressive or risk-seeking at this time? Do they think it is a good excuse to protect their positions that good NFP will comfort Uncle Greenspan to lift rate 50 bps in Feb? They have to expect, if a bad NFP comes out, all the market participants, including long, medium and short terms will sell dollar together and the next available price for dollar bulls to quit may be far away.

That is scenario I. Is there scenario II that it is the long-term dollar bears who are paring their positions making and protecting the dollar correction (in this case, call it dollar reverse more appropriately)? But if long-term dollar bears sell EUR/USD, who are buying at a still high level? After all majority of medium-term and short-term players are defined more by their usable capitals, not by their IQs.

Let me show my plan for EUR/USD today (ending at 22:00 GMT).

1. I won't touch before U.S. session open;
2. If rate dives below 1.3140 but followering flows little (judged by the width of 5 min's bar), I will buy around there and set s/l order @1.3090;
3. If rate dives below 1.3140 aggressively (some stop loss orders under which should be triggered), I will wait to see if 1.3100 can hold (which might be briefly breached by the aftermath of 1.3140 stops hunting), if 1.3100 can hold after earthquake I will buy there and set s/l order @1.3060; I omit the solution for that rate dives aggressively below 1.3100, I think the possibility is little;
4. If rate doesn't test 1.3140 at all before London market close (16:00 GMT) today, I will set buy limit day order @ U.K./U.S. session low and set s/l order @1.3130.